The NFM framework utilizes the classical idea of multiplicative frailty in survival analysis as a principled way of extending the proportional hazard assumption, at the same time being able to leverage the strong approximation power of neural architectures for handling nonlinear covariate dependence.

In recent years, mixture cure models have gained increasing popularity in survival analysis as an alternative to the Cox proportional hazards model, particularly in settings where a subset of patients is considered cured. The proportional hazards mixture cure model is especially advantageous when the presence of a cured fraction can be reasonably assumed, providing a more accurate representation of long-term survival dynamics. In this study, we propose a novel hierarchical Bayesian framework for the semiparametric mixture cure model, which accommodates both the inclusion and exclusion of a frailty component, allowing for greater flexibility in capturing unobserved heterogeneity among patients. Samples from the posterior distribution are obtained using a Markov chain Monte Carlo method, leveraging a hierarchical structure inspired by Bayesian Lasso. Comprehensive simulation studies are conducted across diverse scenarios to evaluate the performance and robustness of the proposed models. Bayesian model comparison and assessment are performed using various criteria. Finally, the proposed approaches are applied to two well-known datasets in the cure model literature: the E1690 melanoma trial and a colon cancer clinical trial.

This paper introduces KANFormer, a novel deep-learning-based model for predicting the time-to-fill of limit orders by leveraging both market- and agent-level information. KANFormer combines a Dilated Causal Convolutional network with a Transformer encoder, enhanced by Kolmogorov-Arnold Networks (KANs), which improve nonlinear approximation. Unlike existing models that rely solely on a series of snapshots of the limit order book, KANFormer integrates the actions of agents related to LOB dynamics and the position of the order in the queue to more effectively capture patterns related to execution likelihood. We evaluate the model using CAC 40 index futures data with labeled orders. The results show that KANFormer outperforms existing works in both calibration (Right-Censored Log-Likelihood, Integrated Brier Score) and discrimination (C-index, time-dependent AUC). We further analyze feature importance over time using SHAP (SHapley Additive exPlanations). Our results highlight the benefits of combining rich market signals with expressive neural architectures to achieve accurate and interpretabl predictions of fill probabilities.

Decision trees are popular in survival analysis for their interpretability and ability to model complex relationships. Survival trees, which predict the timing of singular events using censored historical data, are typically built through heuristic approaches. Recently, there has been growing interest in globally optimized trees, where the overall tree is trained by minimizing the error function over all its parameters. We propose a new soft survival tree model (SST), with a soft splitting rule at each branch node, trained via a nonlinear optimization formulation amenable to decomposition. Since SSTs provide for every input vector a specific survival function associated to a single leaf node, they satisfy the conditional computation property and inherit the related benefits. SST and the training formulation combine flexibility with interpretability: any smooth survival function (parametric, semiparametric, or nonparametric) estimated through maximum likelihood can be used, and each leaf node of an SST yields a cluster of distinct survival functions which are associated to the data points routed to it. Numerical experiments on 15 well-known datasets show that SSTs, with parametric and spline-based semiparametric survival functions, trained using an adaptation of the node-based decomposition algorithm proposed by Consolo et al. (2024) for soft regression trees, outperform three benchmark survival trees in terms of four widely-used discrimination and calibration measures. SSTs can also be extended to consider group fairness.

We introduce a semi-parametric Bayesian model for survival analysis.